Pretentious Film Club's Oscars Picks and Predictions
February 3, 2020
Indian Springs
Happy awards season from Ashton, Catherine, JD, and Paul! We wanted to commemorate our year of pretentious movie-going with our thoughts on the 2020 Oscar nominees. Below we’ve listed our predictions (formed by a combination of public opinion and personal discretion) as well as our general feelings towards these select categories and the films they feature. We hope you enjoy!
Best Supporting Actress Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
I will live and die for Hustlers. Hear me out, I thought it was one of the most self-actualized films of 2019 and Jennifer Lopez was its driving force. I know it’s a stretch for Lopez to have been nominated, but I’m still bitter.
Catherine
Laura Dern had a stellar performance in Marriage Story, and it’s hard to see this go any other way. Bombshell was particularly good, and Jojo Rabbit was definitely not Johansson’s best, so this will and should go to Dern.
Paul
Laura Dern was great. She really was. And she’s going to win. But Margot Robbie was better!! Florence Pugh also deserves it.
JD
Laura Dern has won this award at every major awards show so far this year, and it seems like she should be the clear choice for the Oscars, but they do on occasion choose a young ingenue in this category over a seasoned pro. Florence Pugh would absolutely be my pick. She was fantastic in Little Women and I’d love for her to win for this role.
Ashton
Best Supporting Actor Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
(or)
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
I can’t even look at this category. It literally does not matter to me who wins, because nobody outperformed Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse. It was far and away the best performance by any actor in 2019, and if you haven’t seen the Lighthouse I’m begging you, see it for him.
Paul
I dunno guys… this category looks pretty… how can I put this… bland? I think it should go to Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy, but I guess that’s not gonna happen.
JD
I have lukewarm feelings towards this category. Pesci cracks me up for no reason and I think his role as Harry in Home Alone was truly outstanding so it looks like I’m cheering for my main mobster Joe.
Catherine
I’m still not over Willem Defoe getting snubbed for The Lighthouse, what an incredible performance. This will go to Brad Pitt. His character was hilarious and he’s never won an Oscar in an acting category.
Ashton
Best Lead Actress Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Yeah Renee Zellweger is going to win, but if I could pick, it would be between Saoirse Ronan and Scarlett Johansson. I am definitely biased towards anything Little Women is nominated for (I’ve seen it three times in theatres already), but Saoirse was absolutely incredible as Jo March. Johansson was wholly believable and utterly heartbreaking in Marriage Story, and I’d be thrilled if she could edge out Zellweger.
Ashton
I’m bummed Awkwafina got snubbed because she objectively killed it in The Farewell and I was eager to root for her to receive a well-deserved victory. On another note, I’m stoked Johansson got two nominations because her respective performances had me absolutely floored.
Catherine
I agree with Catherine that Awkwafina should’ve been nominated. Also, I watched Judy, and it was pretty boring. There’s a reason it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, and as much as Renee Zellweger killed it (and will most likely win), I just think this Oscar should go to someone else. How about Saoirse? Also, worth noting that if Cynthia Erivo wins this, she will be the 16th person ever to win an EGOT.
JD
The best actress category doesn’t feel nearly as strong this year as it has previously. Johansson had a career best in Marriage Story but Zellweger has this one in the bag. I hope that in 2020 we see better representation of women in lead roles, so that this category gets the life that it deserves.
Paul
Best Lead Actor Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Phoenix is the clear favorite to win, and I know that Joker led the nominations, but I think the Academy might actually favor Adam Driver. Who knows.
Ashton
I haven’t seen Joker, but somehow I still think it should go to Joaquin. Again, I wish they nominated Michael B. Jordan for Just Mercy.
JD
I mean I understand that Joaquin dropped half his body weight for his craft but have you seen Adam Driver yell.
Catherine
Okay, I don’t get the hype around Phoenix’s performance. Sure, he saved the dumpster fire of a screenplay that was Joker, but if there’s any justice in the world Adam Driver should take this award. His performance perfectly captured what he was going for and I hope the academy notes that.
Paul
Best International Feature South Korea, "Parasite"
Spain, "Pain and Glory"
France, "Les Misérables"
North Macedonia, "Honeyland"
Poland, "Corpus Christi"
I really wish that France had chosen Portrait of a Lady on Fire as their submission, because if they had, Parasite would actually have some competition.
Ashton
I’m mad that Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Transit didn’t get nominated in this category; both of those were excellent. Pain and Glory was great too, but Parasite takes the cake, and it has this award in the bag.
Paul
Parasite is incredible, and the undeniable frontrunner (with good reason). I have so many compliments for this film, and chief among is how Parasite’s tone operates so well. I have never seen anything this playfully disturbing. Personally, I’m cheering for it to win best picture.
Catherine
Best Director Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
(or)
Bong Joon-ho, "Parasite"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"
Greta definitely should have been nominated, but this will go to either Sam Mendes or Bong Joon Ho. They tied in this category at the Critic’s Choice so I think it will be a close call.
Ashton
Where’s Greta?!
Catherine
They picked Todd Phillips over Greta Gerwig and Robbert Eggers. They gave Mendes a nod but continue to sleep on Ari Aster and the Safdie Brothers. This category is a nightmare. They better give this one to Bong Joon-ho or I’m gonna be real peeved.
Paul
Best Cinematography "1917"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
1917 will probably win, but it should be The Lighthouse. The fact that The Lighthouse only got one nomination is absurd, but it fully deserves to win this category. One of my new favorite for sure, it’s just stunning.
Ashton
It should probably go to 1917, but did 1917 enter too late in the game for Academy voters to fully consider it??? We shall see...
JD
1917 had some great moments and absolutely stunning night scenes. The Academy favored Birdman and it’s one-shot approach in 2015, so that appreciation (combined with the fact Roger Deakins is the patron saint of filmmaking) could very well push 1917 to success.
Catherine
It should go to The Lighthouse, no discussion. Please, go see that movie.
Paul
Adapted Screenplay "Jojo Rabbit"
"The Irishman"
(or)
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"
"Joker"
Joker had one of the most simplistic, predictable, and poorly written screenplays of the year. Please just give it to anything else.
Paul
I would give a limb to see this go to Little Women! Also, a Jojo Rabbit dub would be super neat.
Catherine
Greta Gerwig should take this home for Little Women, but I also wouldn’t count Jojo Rabbit out.
Ashton
Original Screenplay "Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Knives Out"
"1917"
Noah Baumbach wrote an incredibly realistic and heartfelt screenplay for Marriage Story, and this award should be his. Knives Out was also incredible. It was original and engaging and I was really happy to see that it got nominated.
Ashton
I think this category is a testament to just how awesome 2019 was for film. I would be happy with any of these films receiving recognition, and I’m personally hoping for a Parasite or Marriage Story victory.
Catherine
I think Marriage Story has a shot!
JD
Parasite of course should get this award, but I also would appreciate them giving a nod to Knives Out, that movie had one of the most creative screenplays of the year. Either way, hard to go wrong in this category unless they pick 1917.
Paul
Best Picture "Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
"Marriage Story"
"Parasite"
"1917"
Please just don’t give it to Joker or Ford v. Ferrari. I’ll take anything. Parasite was great. Marriage Story was great. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood was pretty good. I’ll take anything. Please.
Paul
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will probably win, and that’s… fine.
JD
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win because it’s a movie about Hollywood in the 60s, and you know who lived in Hollywood in the 60s? Literally every voting member of the Academy. I would absolutely love to see Jojo Rabbit pull off a win, although I don’t think a World War 2 satire about a boy whose imaginary friend is Hitler may be fit to every Academy member’s taste.
Ashton