The 2023 Niger coup

Following their independence from France in 1960, Niger did not have a very smooth start. It only took 14 years for their first coup d’etat and within the next 36 years, Niger would experience 3 more coups and one attempted coup. There are several  reasons for these constant coups; however, they happened primarily because Niger is in an unstable and poor region of Africa and France did not handle their decolonization well. However, Niger’s coup problem seemed to be over in 2021 when an attempted coup was thwarted by the government. That is until, just a few weeks ago on July 26, 2023, a fifth coup in Niger succeeded, reversing their recent progress. This one seems markedly different from the others however, and it could prove to be decisive in determining the politics of West Africa.

Early in the morning of July 26th President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was captured and detained by members of his own presidential guard. This was led by the head of the presidential guard, Abdourahamane Tchiani. All first family members who were with him were also detained and are currently being held in the presidential palace. Tchiani’s motives seem very clear: just days before the 2023 Niger coup, President Bazoum announced that he intended to replace Tchiani (perhaps with someone who would not try to coup him). Tchiani, fearful for the security of his job, hatched a plan to take control of the government by leveraging his status as a general and head of the presidential guard. After Bazoum was dealt with, on July 28th Tchiani, in true coup fashion, proclaimed himself as the new President of Niger.

Bazoum is an interesting figure in Niger. Not only is he the first member of the Arab minority to be elected in Niger but also his election marked the first time that a president of Niger was democratically elected for a second time in a row. His election was heavily pushed back against, primarily by elites and other political opponents, but he managed to retain power until now. Immediately after Bazoum’s capture and deposition, members of the old government and other concerned parties were understandably worried that this would be the end of democracy in Niger and described the coup as "suicidal and anti-republican madness.” Further, they claimed Tchiani’s presidency to be illegitimate.

The international reaction to this dramatic shift in Niger is what makes it so different from other coups in Niger. The most important reaction came from the West African economic alliance known as ECOWAS, a group of which Niger was previously a member. ECOWAS has been dealing with coups that turn democratic regimes into military juntas for several years. The group's standard response to these coups is to impose heavy sanctions on the nation. These attempts to sanction the juntas into submission have proved fruitless in places like Burkina Faso and Mali. In the instance of the current Niger coup, ECOWAS has responded with even heavier sanctions and an ultimatum. On July 30th, the ultimatum gave Niger seven days to put Mohamed Bazoum back in power.

The ultimatum expired on August 6th, and at time of writing ECOWAS has yet to act. When it expired, ECOWAS did call an emergency meeting to discuss what to do next, but they seem divided on the best course of action. The de facto leader of ECOWAS, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, has implied that a use of force may be necessary, stating “We must bite back, we cannot sit like toothless bulldogs.” Other ECOWAS members are not so sure, especially because the other military juntas in West Africa (namely Burkina Faso and Mali) have pledged to defend Niger against any attack by ECOWAS. With the group divided, Chad is acting as a mediator and is currently attempting to talk with Niger. At time of writing, ECOWAS is still discussing what to do.

It is currently difficult to predict how this situation will turn out. It is possible, yet unlikely, that Abdourahamane Tchiani will back down and reinstateMohamed Bazoum, returning democracy to Niger; however, it is much more likely that he will attempt to call Nigeria’s bluff and secure his rule over Niger. As for whether or not ECOWAS will follow through on its threats, it is still difficult to say. At time of writing the ECOWAS members are still meeting and plotting. Several of the representatives at these meetings are military personnel which could signal that they are planning some kind of military intervention that could spill over and ignite all of West Africa in war. It is more probably; however, that any military intervention will be small-scale and focused on taking Tchiani out of office from the inside.

As we watch this coup unfold further, it is important to understand that it could have dramatic effects for the status of democracy in West Africa, for better or worse. 

Sources

Niamey, B. M. M. &. T. I. I. I. (2023, July 29). Niger coup: EU suspends security cooperation and budgetary aid. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66337767 

Wikipedia contributors. (2023). 2023 Nigerien coup d’état. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat 

London, B. H. S. T. I. a. &. F. C. I. (2023, July 30). Niger coup: West African leaders threaten military intervention. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66353284 

Reuters. (2023, July 30). Chadian leader volunteers to talk to Niger military leaders. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chadian-leader-volunteers-talk-niger-military-leaders-nigerian-sources-2023-07-30/ 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66353284 

Okafor, C. (2023). We will not tolerate coups in West Africa – Tinubu. Premium Times Nigeria. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/608962-we-will-not-tolerate-coups-in-west-africa-tinubu.html